[SMM Analysis] Demand for Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Is Moderate, No Significant Decline Expected in January

Published: Jan 6, 2025 14:03

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[Moderate Demand for Non-Oriented Silicon Steel with No Significant Decline Expected in January] Looking ahead to January 2025, in terms of supply, China's overall supply of non-oriented silicon steel is expected to slightly decrease in January, mainly due to steel mill equipment maintenance and a lack of raw materials. On the demand side, the "trade-in" subsidy policy continues to play an active role. In Q4 2024, household appliances and NEV consumption performed well, and there was a phenomenon of rush orders in foreign trade, providing a small growth margin. End-users downstream maintain rigid demand for non-oriented silicon steel. Overall, the current demand for non-oriented silicon steel is moderate, with solid cost support, and no significant decline is expected. SMM forecasts that the nationwide average price of non-oriented silicon steel B50A800 in January 2025 will fluctuate within the range of [5,070, 5,120] yuan/mt, showing a stable with a weak trend.

SMM China Cold-Rolled Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Trend

Looking ahead to January 2025, in terms of supply, China's overall supply of non-oriented silicon steel is expected to slightly decline in January, mainly due to steel mill equipment maintenance and a lack of raw materials. On the demand side, the "trade-in" subsidy policy continues to play an active role. In Q4 2024, household appliances and NEV consumption performed well, and there was a phenomenon of competing for export orders in foreign trade, creating a small incremental space. Downstream end-users maintain rigid demand for non-oriented silicon steel. Overall, current demand for non-oriented silicon steel is moderate, with solid cost support, and no significant decline is expected. SMM forecasts that the nationwide average price of non-oriented silicon steel B50A800 in January 2025 will fluctuate between 5,070-5,120 yuan/mt, showing a stable with a weak trend.

SMM Steel Mill Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Production Schedule - 17 Mills (10,000 mt)

SMM Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Production Distribution

According to the SMM survey, most of the 17 sample steel mills are in production, but 2 mills have halted production.

The 17 non-oriented silicon steel mills plan to produce 994,000 mt in January 2025, up 11,000 mt (+1.1%) MoM and up 36,800 mt (+3.84%) YoY. Among them, 11 integrated steel mills plan to produce 783,000 mt of non-oriented silicon steel in December, while 6 semi-integrated steel mills plan to produce 211,000 mt in December.

The production distribution of non-oriented silicon steel is mainly concentrated in east China, accounting for 501,000 mt (50%), followed by north China, accounting for 195,000 mt (20%).

High-grade new energy grades account for 309,000 mt of production, while medium- and low-grade grades account for 690,000 mt.

According to the SMM survey, mainstream steel mills' non-oriented silicon steel orders in January 2025 continue to decrease, but the decline is not significant compared to December.

The reduction in steel mill orders is mainly due to two factors. On one hand, the market conditions at the beginning of January did not improve as expected, and downstream end-user production did not recover as anticipated. This is especially true for small and medium-sized processing enterprises, which are in poor operating conditions and are purchasing as needed, resulting in no incremental demand for non-oriented silicon steel. On the other hand, some steel mills experienced equipment issues, and some lacked raw materials, leading to a proactive reduction in order volumes.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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